The Role of Luck in Magic: The Gathering and How to Minimise Its Impact

The Role of Luck in Magic: The Gathering

Magic: The Gathering players have a difficult relationship with luck. When they win, it’s skill – they played well and predicted the meta. When they lose, they say they got screwed or put it down unfavourable top decks.

So, is Magic: The Gathering a game of skill, or luck?

There’s no doubt skill is key – it’s not fluke that some of the biggest pro players of Magic past or present, whether it’s Jon Finkel or Nathan Steuer, consistently put-up good tournament finishes at the peak of their powers. Sit down across from Reid Duke for 100 games and see how many you win – it won’t be 50%.

But that doesn’t mean luck isn’t a core component of the game too. Even pro players only have a win rate of around 65%, due in part to their pro-opposition, but also the game’s inherent variance. It’s possible to play perfectly and still lose in Magic: The Gathering.

As frustrating as being on the wrong side of luck can feel, it’s also what makes Magic: The Gathering the best games in the world. Variance is a great leveller, meaning even a newbie could take down Kai Budde if the cards line up right. Then there’s the variety it brings, meaning each game is unique and exciting, throwing up new problems to solve as it unfolds. Finally there’s the viewing spectacle, and how drawing that perfect card can lead to some legendary moments – perhaps none more famous than the Lightning Helix top deck at 2006's Pro Tour Honolulu.

Fortunately, while Lady Luck may not always be on your side, you can take steps to minimise the impact of variance. By controlling the ‘controllables’ then you’re putting less down to chance.

Probability and Deck Building

The time we feel ‘luck’ the most in Magic: The Gathering tends to be around the game’s mana system. Decks are comprised of land and spell cards, with players ideally playing one land per turn. The trouble is, sometimes you draw too few lands (screw) or too many (flood). In 40 card-limited, the golden number of lands in a deck is around 17, while in 60-card constructed it’s more like 25. These numbers provide roughly the same chance to be able to make your first three land drops consistently, likely to hit land four, and a good chance of hitting number five on time.

While this provides a great starting point for mana bases, there are other factors at play too. Firstly, what’s your strategy? If you’re playing an aggressive deck with a low mana curve, three lands may be all you ever want to see. On the other hand, for a control deck that’s playing for the long game, it’s vital to be hitting land drops every turn. Then there’s the colours you’re playing – are you mono-coloured, or a five-colour deck? Ensuring you have the right ratio of mana producers to the cards of that colour in your deck is important to play your spells. Adding mana fixing to the mix makes it a little more complicated – does playing four Birds of Paradise and four Llanowar Elves mean you can shave a land? It depends on how conservative you’re feeling.

Another key element to deck construction is the number of cards in your deck. Unlike Commander, which specifies decks must be 100 cards, constructed and limited formats decks require a 60 or 40 card minimum respectively. This means you can play more cards if you like, but there’s a reason players don’t. Quite simply, the more cards in your deck, the lower the chance you’ll draw the specific cards you want. There sometimes may be reasons to play a few more than the minimum – e.g are you self-milling, or a powerful addition like Yorion, Sky Nomad, but generally it’s better to stick with 60 or 40 to have a greater chance to draw your best cards.

All 60 card formats also have the restriction of no more than four copies of any one card, and Commander is even harsher allowing no more than one. But there’s a way to add consistency even here – redundancy. Say you’re only allowed your four (or one) Wrath of God and you want more, well chuck in an End Hostilities or Fumigate. Maxed out on Rampant Growth, then add a Nature’s Lore. Most cards in Magic: The Gathering have equivalents that do a great impression of extra copies – and those can even be clones to copy effects, or tutors to go find it. Tutors, in fact, really help to mitigate the impact of luck, allowing you to find whatever you need – even that missing land drop. Players also need to consider when they want to play four copies of a card, versus three or fewer. Do you want this card in every game? Is this card good in every stage of the game? How well does the card function in multiplies (e.g. is it legendary)? How well do I envisage it performing against the meta game? These will help inform how happy you’d be to draw it, and therefore how many you want to run.  

A final key element is card advantage – by adding card draw, card filtering (e.g. Merfolk Looter), or other card selection (e.g. scrying), allows you to smooth out your clunky hand to find what you need. There's a reason Brainstorm becomes a staple wherever it’s legal.

Skill and Strategy

Generally, you’re going to win the games where you’re ‘lucky’ and your opponent isn’t and lose the ones that are the other way around. But what about those games in the middle? Skill and strategy are key for converting those matches into victory, and it begins before you even sit down at the table.

Firstly, what deck are you planning to bring? What do you expect from the meta? You can only get ‘lucky’ in drawing that perfect sideboard card if it’s in your deck in the first place.

Then there’s your own unique play style – if you’re an aggro player at heart and have experience in squeezing out those mono red victories, then you may need to think twice about a controlling strategy even if it is ‘the best deck’, as chances are you’ll soon run into someone that plays it better than you. I’m reminded of some of Michael J Flores’ wise words here: firstly, about rogue strategies, and how playing something different and unexpected can lead to victory because your opponent doesn’t know how to tackle it. How can they get ‘lucky’ if they don’t know what they need? They may draw that perfect answer and screw it up! Second, and possibly Mike’s most famous article, ‘Who’s the Beatdown’ is about assessing your role in a match up and changing your strategy accordingly. A simple example being that if you’re playing a midrange deck, you’ll be an aggro deck against control, but a control deck against aggro, and need to change your plays to match.

Lastly, a word on shuffling. Shuffle your deck properly! The numbers in a deck list are built with randomisation in mind, and you’re not going to do yourself any favours by going into game two with a barely shuffled deck and all your game one lands clumped together.

Importance of adaptability

So you’ve done your homework, picked your deck, built it, ensured it’s randomised and are sitting across from your opponent. How can we mitigate against luck at this point?

Firstly, there’s the mulligan decision. How good is your hand – can you play your spells, and, if it’s known, can it win against what your opponent has brought? If you keep a greedy one-lander, or a hand with spells of a colour that your lands can’t produce, then you could lose before you start. Not all mulligan decisions are so clear cut, and this is where adaptability is key – can this win against what you believe your opponent has, whether known or just predicted?

This feeds into a second point – how well do you know this format, in terms of decks played and specific cards within them? You may think you got ‘unlucky’ by your opponent having that combat trick, but if you know exactly what instant-speed cards costing one red mana your opponent could have, and you notice they’ve been keeping on red mana available all game, then you can take away that risk and play around it. It’s not unlucky if your opponent blows you out with a spell that is widely played, and they’ve telegraphed it.

Another element of adaptability is how to shift gears when things aren’t going your way. Say your mana screwed or flooded – how can you make the best of the lands you do have? Leaving two blue mana open, for example, is a warning sign in Magic: The Gathering that you could have a counter spell, and your opponent may be hesitant to drop their best card. The other colours have tricks too, and, if you bluff that you may have a response, it can make them slow down for you to start drawing what you need.

A final point on adaptability is about understanding how you can win the game and “play to your outs”. If you’re ahead, you need to think about how you could lose and ensure you’re playing around that fact. Likewise, if you’re losing, consider what you need to turn the game around and play towards it – just as Craig Jones did to hit that famous Lightning Helix. Contact us for all of your Magic:The Gathering needs!